The tactical failure of 2021/2022 season AEL Limassol Part 1

Disclaimer

This will be a 3-part series.

It is highly recommended that the reader is already familiar with some level of formation creation, as well as basic football tactics and key terminology. Although rough explanations will be given for some key points during this presentation, I will in no way or form cover everything regarding the tactical side of the game in general and this document is in no way, shape or form a replacement for actual tactical study of football formations and terminology. Finally many parts of this presentation may not align with the view of either AEL the company or any member of the football team in general as it is a personal study based on match days. I, in no way shape or form, claim any of the statements made in this document to be 100% accurate. They are all based on observations, and analysis of match days, player movement and team behaviour in multiple scenarios during AEL Limassol’s matches.

Part 1: Summer Transfer planning and team formation.

Synopsys:

After a successful season in 2020/2021 with Dusan Kerkez spirits were high. Unfortunately the team could not live up to the expectations set up for the following year. There are obviously many reasons for that outcome, with many of which not being directly match related, but for this project we will focus on the things we can observe ourselves through the performance of the team on the field and not anything that might have happened outside of it. I am in the firm belief that the failure of 2021/2022 season can be tactically attributed to the following factors:

1. Bad Summer transfer planning

2. Bad player utilisation

3. Multiple formation/tactical changes.

4. Lack of team cohesion.

5. Tactical approach wasn’t taking advantage of the players strong traits.

In this part of these series we will be focusing on Summer transfer period departures and arrivals, player utilization and how despite the increase in budged and the acquisition of quality players the team was destined to fail. We will start this analysis by taking a look at the teams departures and arrivals during the Summer transfer window.

Key Departures	Key Arrivals
Ryan Mmaee. (CF - DLF)	S. Scepovic (CF - TM)
Danilo Soouza (AM/LW - WPM)	F. Mazurek (AM - AM/SS)
S. Kerkez (CB - BPD)	Davenrvelt (CB - BPD)
M. Antamovic (CM - BBM)	A. Reynolds (CM - DLPd)
G. Bunoza (CB)	K. Sotiriou (CB)
A. Pantis (CB - BPD)	Kire Ristefski (CB - BPD)
A. Avraam (LB/LW - FBa)	R. Mazan (LB/LW - FBd)
Matko Babic (CF)	Andre Chaves (CF)

We will compare these changes in parts in order to see how each player affected his role as part of the team and the responsibilities he had during match-time in comparison to the additions made by the team. This analysis will not focused on the individual player quality of each player since at this time it's irrelevant to the point of discussion.

Key Definitions (Player Roles):

• Ball Playing Defender: A central defender that is able to contribute effectively to the build-up of the team and help retain possession of the ball, the team will often utilise the ball playing defender to start of their attacking attempts by having them try either through balls towards the forwards or diagonal ball to the wingers.

• Half Back: Half back is the defensive midfielder that will not usually get up to the opponent's half of the pitch to press. He will often fall deeper and closer to the defensive line often acting as a 3rd central defender or a full back in cases of need. When the team is in possession of the ball attacking, the half back will drop deeper covering for his advanced teammate whether this is a wing back advancing to the enemy third, or a ball playing defender moving higher up the pitch to assist with ball movement.

• Anchor Defensive midfielder: The role of the anchor role in defensive midfield is one that the defensive midfielder will additionally to his defensive duties provide support to either the back 4 or the more creative midfielders when in need of options to circulate the ball. He will also be the first line on engage when the te3am enters the final 3rd of the defensive area of the team and the first choice to receive the pass when possession is won. While the anchor will not aim to move the ball forward to the attack himself he will often provide the support needed to his teammates in order for the ball to be securely provided to the creative playmaker of the team,

• Box to Box midfielder: The box to box is a role where a central midfielder of the team will operate between the two boxes of the field, hence the term box to box. This means that often the box to box will start pressing the opponents higher up the field when trying to develop their play or when possession is lost and is expected to make runs into the opponent's third and assist with attacks when possession is won, by either looking for long shots, or providing support for the rest of the attack in circulating the ball forward. The box to box midfielder is expected to have great stamina as he will need to run up and down the pitch a lot assisting with both attacking and defensive play for the team

• Wide Playmaker: Wide playmaker is the playmaker that tends to play wider on the pitch (close to the role of a winger) and help orchestrate attacks on their respective side of the pitch. They usually avoid trying to move the ball around directly through the central areas and often find themselves overlapping with the fullback/winger/inside forward of the team, providing through balls or support through the wider areas of the pitch.

• Roaming Playmaker: The roaming playmaker is the playmaker that has sort of a “free” role when the team is building possession trying to create an attacking play, the roaming playmaker will often fall back to get the ball from the centre backs or the defensive midfielders, and carry it forward moving to all areas of the pitch to assist with ball circulation. He can provide support from both the wings and the central area of the pitch in order to get the ball forward to the attacking third of the enemy team,

• Deep Lying forward: The Central forward that tends to get out of the box and drop more into the midfield. This aims in the forward to assist with building the attacking play of the team while also dragging one of the central defenders with him, thus creating space in the box for a winger/shadow striker/false 9/inside forward/attacking midfielder that can get in late in the box.The deep lying forward is expected to both create chance for his teammates and himself.

• Target man forward: The target man’s role is to be the receiver of the teams attacking attempts in the box. While there are different styles of target man in football the general idea is that most balls in the opponent’s area will be aiming to hit the target man. Then the target man can either try and score himself, or distribute balls to his left or right playing with his back towards the opposition goal. If a more supportive target man role is selected, the most common strategy is for either a second forward to play with him, or an attacking midfielder/shadow striker/inside forward to be able to enter the box and provide options.

The team used two separate formations during 2020/2021 season and the attacking approach of the team changed alongside those. The two formations mainly used by the squad were a 4-1-4-1 and a 4-1-1-3-1.

During the season, different players shined based on the formation and the tactical approach used. This is more evident after taking a look at the numbers different players produced using each formation. The graph below shows that players like Riera, Torres, and Babic performed significantly better utilising the 4-1-4-1 formation while players like Mmaee and Danilo performed better using the 4-1-1-3-1 formation.

Player	4-1-4-1 (Goals - Assists - Apps)	G/A per app	4-1-1-3-1 (Goals - Assists - Apps)	G/A per app
Torres	4 - 10 - 20	0,7	1 - 2 - 15	0,2
Riera	6 - 3 - 20	0,45	0 - 1 - 12	0,08
Babic	7 - 2 - 16	0,56	0 - 0 - 14	0
Mmaee	4 - 2 -18	0,33	11 - 2 - 15	0,86
Danilo	3 - 2 - 19	0,29	3 - 2 - 9	0,55

Now the question is

How come the formation change had such a big impact on player performance?

In order to answer this question we need to take a closer look at how each formation functions, and how each utilises the players and takes advantage of the strengths of those players.

The initial formation the team used was a 4-1-4-1. The attacking goal of this formation was to take advantage of the team's wing players and provide sharp balls into the enemy box to threaten the opposition.

Some tricks utilised with the formation was that the two attacking midfielders were in a wide playmaker role instead of a classic number 10(advance playmaker role). Utilising that role those players were moving close to the wing as well creating a numbers mismatch with the opposition in either a 2v1 or a 3v2 situation when the full backs were moving forward. The wide playmaker on the other side was moving more centrally on the pitch lurking outside the enemy box with the second winger driving inside the box with the striker. Often times the second wide playmaker, the winger and the striker were also swapping places in the box to confuse the opposition.

This allowed players like Torres to take advantage of their good crossing ability, thus getting many free crosses into the opposition box due to the space created for him from the numbers mismatch, while Riera either on the wings or in the midfield could take advantage of his strong passing ability while also arriving late in the box when the defenders where focusing down the striker and/or the 2nd winger. 

Also Babic who is a more static player compared to Mmaee was finding success since he was the recipient of many balls, his playstyle focusing on a small number of touches with the ball before attempting to score both in and outside the box enabled him to become a very effective goal scorer since the ball was always delivered to him in a prime position. 

Additionally this approach was also hiding the weaknesses of those players and more specifically, the weaker shot power of Riera and Torres and their inability to drive inside the box to finish attempts when presented with a tighter marking.

Defensively this formation was utilising a half back as a defensive midfielder who was starting to pressure the opposition after the opponent passed the midfield line. Further up the pitch pressing was taking place by the striker and the roaming playmakers. Also the half back was responsible for covering for any full back that might have advanced forward to assist in the team's attacking play.

The use of the half back allowed the full backs of the team to join the attack without worrying too much about a slower return back. It also helped hide Davor's weakness when it comes to moving the ball forward.

The teams most common line-up using this formation consisted of Vozinia in the Goal as a sweeper keeper who wouldn't be afraid to assist to the teams build-up and provide support for the defenders as another option to pass the ball.

Andre Texeira and Boris Godal were the centre backs with Texeira utilising a ball playing defender role often providing long balls forward towards the wingers of the team, while he back 4 were completed with Bruno Santos and Minas Antoniou(Charis Kyriakou). In the centre of the pitch Davor(Mendo) was the sole defensive midfielder in a half back role with Torres and Gazarian taking the two wings. Danilo and Riera were the wide playmakers with Babic(Mmaee) taking position as the teams Centre Forward.

The team planned to start all of their attempts from their centre backs while also controlling possession until an opening was available to pass to the team's wings or wide playmakers.

During transition the team focused on regaining their defensive formation instead of immediately pressing to win back the ball with the exception of player in opponents final 3rd who would press higher up.

Using this tactic the team enjoyed a fairly successful run up until close to the end of the regular season were the team's tactical approach changed.

Their can be many reason's for the team decision to change the formation but i believe it all comes down to three main factors:

1. The return of Mendogevic from injury, who before getting injured was the best defensive midfielder of the league, while Davor had managed to earn a starting spot with his performances. This pushed Kerkez to change to a formation that can utilise both.

2. The obvious left wing weakness of the team forced Kerkez to utilise Danilo as a left winger, but with Papafotis injured there was no other wide playmaker on the team.

3. due to the playoffs and many derbies coming up, Kerkez wanted a formation that will allow him to have a tighter defence

So based on those factors the team decided to move on with a new formation in 4-1-1-3-1. That formation aimed to have the sole attacking midfielder have the responsibility of moving the ball around the pitch as a roaming playmaker. The also tried to utilise Davor as a box to box midfielder due to his high stamina. Kerkez hoped to be able to use his roaming playmaker to keep having these mismatches while having a box to box arriving outside the box to provide that extra man support. While a slower attacking approach to 4-1-4-1 this initially produced some good results, as the defensive weaknesses the team presented seemed to be fixed with the extra defensive half.

This approach provided the team with more defensive cohesion as well as additional support for Davor who could now move further up the pitch and assist with attacking play. The downside was that the team was slower on their attacking progression with less automations happening between the players as there were less option further up the pitch and in the opponent's final third.

Due to the lack of an extra player in the attacking third the striker was instructed to come outside his box more often and assist with building up the attacking play. This allowed some players to express their individual skills due to the less amount of players of the team circulating the opponents final third and the more movement freedom this change created for those players.

Mmaee was able to roam more outside the box and to the midfield to pick up balls forcing enemy defenders to follow him up. This approach created space for another player Danilo to find space in either the back of the defence or to shoot from distance. Mmaee was able to play more selfishly from the change that actually suited him more. He could try to knock the ball past enemy defenders, shoot from different angles and use his amazing ball possessing abilities to create space both for himself and his teammates

Danilo also found more space due to Mmaee's freedom as he could try long shoots after Mmaee creates some space or go for 1v1s on the wing with the enemy back, driving into the area. This was able to hide his weaker crossing and passing ability while helping him taking advantage of his speed, dribbling and shooting.

Those new elements presented in the game briefly revitalised the team since it provided new attacking threads to it's arsenal. Opponents started targeting the Torres, Riera combo specifically and this change made that strategy less effective as the team had more threats to utilise in the attacking third.

The side effect of the change though was that many players had a drop in performance with the new approach not suiting them as much.

Torres wasn't finding the same space for killer crosses any more as the attacking midfielder was not always on his side of the pitch. Also the fact that Mmaee was roaming outside the box a lot partially lead to his good crossing ability to go to waste as there weren't that many options in the box. Lastly his shooting weakness became more apparent as many times he needed to finish an attempt himself instead of looking for the assist.  

Riera also had a significant drop in performance after the formation change since now the whole passing game of the team was depended on him. This caused him to not be able to assist on the teams attacking play in any other way other than circulating the ball. Many time we noticed Riera to be forced to drop further back to get the ball and start the teams attack but that caused the team to have no other player behind the striker to move the ball to. The fact that long shoots weren't his strong point became also apparent during that time, and the requirement for more running around the pitch made his decreasing stamina problems obvious.

The main philosophy of the team remained the same as the attacking attempts were starting for the centre backs moving the ball to the roaming playmaker or look for the team's wingers with long balls. The main difference was that the team now utilised Mendogevic as an ancor man in contrast to the half back used before since now there was a second defensive midfielder next to him.

As seen the changes in tactical philosophy changed the performance level of many players as their individual role within the team changed with the formation.

The season ended, while not in silverware, the team's year could be considered successful, a 3rd place finish and a semis run to the Cup while also getting a European ticket. The future was looking bright for the team.

Then during the transfer window MMAEE, Danillo and Babic left the team giving place to Scepovic, Mazurek, and Chaves. Other changes were made to the roster as well but those 3 will be the focal point of this analysis.

For the new season the team decided to stick with the 4-1-1-3-1 formation despite the fact that the best performing players while using said formation where out of the team.

Beside that, players that had struggles with said formation like Riera, and Torres were set up for failure before the season even started.

Based on those factors, it was critical that the summer acquisitions were successful in order for the team to find similar levels of success to the previous season, but ultimately the transfer choices of the team were not the needed ones. The team started the season with aims to challenge for both the League title and the Cup as well as secure a place in the Conference league group stage.

While Scepovic proved to be clinical in front of goal when presented with chances in the first few games, the style of play of the 4-1-1-3-1 formation is not working to his strengths.

MMAEE, a player with good technical ability, that can threaten the enemy defence in a 1v1 scenario, or that could drop out of the enemy box to get balls and help the team in building an attack was thriving in an environment like this, while a player of Scepovic style needs to have all his movements take place inside or close to the edge of the box. Scepovic needed the ball to be taken to him and he can then score for the team, or provide the final pass to a teammate arriving to the box from behind. Having a player like Scepovic and expecting him to provide you with the attributes MMAEE did during the match is unrealistic in every way due to how vastly different both players are.

The same thing can be said for Mazurek, While Mazurek has a good long shoot, getting tasked with circulating the ball for the whole team as the sole creative player on the team's midfield was something impossible for him to pull of. Mazurek's strengths are in his ability to drive from deep towards the enemy box, his good shooting ability and his keen eye for the final pass. Having him circulating the ball for the team in the midfield basically strips away most of his strong suits as he can rarely be a thread, while exposing weaknesses of not being that physically strong and not possessing a calm passing style to move the ball around.

Finally the lack of support Pele provided the team with all the struggles presented towards Riera and Torres with the new formation as analysed above caused the team to be unable to threaten the enemy goal.

While the start of the season with a strong win with 4-0 against Pafos was promising taking a closer look at that game we can see that the team had 4 shots on target and 4 goals something that proved to be more of a fluke. Over the fixtures the team seemed unable to find chemistry on the pitch. The team seemed to be getting worse as the players got familiar with the strategy and the tactical formation instead of getting better. The few shining moments during a match started taking place only when a player was acting outside of the familiar formula of the formation and cases like this can be seen in goals scored by Maindevac and Mazurek in the games against Achna and PAEEK.

Also Chavez proved to be way too unfit to be able to contribute which rises questions as to why Babic was loaned out after an arguably great season. Chavez being so unfit meant he could neither assist the team in the attacking build-up the way Mmaee used to be able to do nor last a whole match, while Maindevac's injury problems left the team dry in the striker role.

Davor's weakness to move balls forward became even more apparent since the team started struggling as whole and the team seems unable to even move the ball towards the opponents box.

A formation similar to the initial 4-1-4-1 played at the start of last season would have probably fitted the players that arrived in the team during the transfer window more but nobody can say for certain.

The only thing for sure is that the player choices that took place in the Summer weren't the ones that the team needed in order to perform well using the 4-1-1-3-1 formation.

All the identified problems with the summer transfer window as a summary can be found below:

*This list is considering the team was determined to play the 4-1-1-3-1 system. in a different formation/tactical approach some of the moves made might be considered good or even great.

• Lack of a midfield player that can circulate the for the whole team from deeper into the field. Davor shouldn't be played as a box to box since he cannot move the ball forward, or if the team believes that he can adapt to such role they should have had an alternative ready. A player with those attributes should have been brought in which would have allowed Mazurek to shine taking advantage of his strengths more. The team had a player with those attributes in Marko Adamovic who was let go and got replaced by a defensive midfielder instead.

• Sito Riera's drop of performance and increasing age bring questions as to if he can lead the attacking midfield of the team for the year, a good option for his position was needed but never brought in, as Mazurek is not the style of player to be moving the ball for the team.

• Lack of depth in both wings as Torres and Pele were the only true wingers since Anthony was not considered by the coaching staff and Euller is injury prone (originally LB), The youngster Evangelos Andreou was considered as an option but was not utilised.

• Lack of depth in left back position after Avraam was let go

• Lack of depth in Right back position with M. Antoniou out with long injury and Panteli given out on loan.

• Only 6 Cypriot slots were utilised for Catalogue A players in the squad (out of 10)with those 6 being (Sotiriou, Papafotis, Minas (long term injury), Georgiou(Not considered as first team option), Reynolds, Kervanos) which basically come down to 4 available players.

• Lack of 2nd choice goalkeeper with many question marks over both Evora's and Keravno's quality and ability to perform at this level.

• The arrival of Chavez as those money could have been used on other areas of the squad and Babic could have stayed on the team.

• Wrong style of player brought in in Scepovic as described above.

• Wrong style of player in Mazurek as described above.

Robert Mazan and Bryan pelle never showed the potential they were brought in for in the pitch but this is not directly distributed as a wrong choice as their characteristics might have fitted the quad but the lack of ability (or other circumstances )caused them to not perform.

Stay tuned for part two of this project where we will explore how the team's attempts to fix the issues presented caused problems in team cohesion and confusion during matchdays.